文章中文名称：基于老龄人口对机构养老需求的思考— 以上海市宝山区养老机构布局规划为例

文章英文名称：Thoughts on Residential Care Based on the Aging Population: A Case Study on Baoshan's Nursing Home Planning

作者信息:

林智慧  上海宝山规划设计研究院有限公司副院长

摘要 : 随着社会对养老机构需求的不断增加，养老问题已是一个严峻的社会问题和被广泛关注的民生问题。为积极应对宝山区人口深度老龄化的趋势，加强宝山养老服务基础设施建设。由区民政局牵头，会同相关部门开展《宝山区养老设施布局专项规划》的编制工作，规划在上海市“9073”养老服务模式的基础上，结合国内外养老服务的经验，探索适合宝山区养老事业发展的模式；运用科学数据模型，预测全区和区内本市户籍老龄人口，实现区内双重平衡；同时，强调养老机构的市场配置和调剂配置，即在政府保底的基础上，鼓励有实力、有资质的民营资源进行补充，从而满足老龄人口对养老机构的需求。

关键词 : 老龄人口，养老机构，养老模式，稳定性评价，需求预测，专项规划

Abstract:  With the increasing demand for the nursing home, pension has become a serious social issue and a livelihood concern. In order to actively respond to the issue aging population in Baoshan District, we should strengthen the infrastructure construction. Thus, the Special Plan for the Layout of Nursing Homes in Baoshan District has been compiled by the leading Civil Affairs Bureau and other relevant departments.  Based on the 9073 pension mode in Shanghai, the plan made use of the experience of old-age care at home and abroad to explore a suitable model for the development of nursing home in Baoshan District. Scientific mathematical models are adopted to predict the number of elderly people within the district and with a  household registration, so as to achieve a double balance. At the same time, it emphasizes the market allocation and adjustment allocation of pension facilities. That is to say, qualified private enterprises are encouraged to support the government to meet the needs of aging population for nursing homes.

Keywords : aging population, nursing home, pension mode, stability evaluation,  demand forecasting, special planning